Q4 2025 Client Letter
Q4 2025 Client Letter – January 8, 2026
Enclosed are your reports and spreadsheets (Clients with assets over $500,000 in assets under management) for the period ending December 31, 2025. Also included in this mailing are educational materials, relevant updates, and our outlook on the market.
Market Recap
What’s Happened In 2025?
Overall Performance
Performance was exceptional for 2025
Just about every asset class was positive for the year, some more than others
This is the main theme we saw:
Conservative accounts were up around mid to high single digits
Moderate accounts were up close to the low double-digit level
More aggressive accounts were up in the high double digits
US Stock Indexes were all positive, with large caps outperforming mid and small caps (1)
Large Cap Growth and International positions have been the highest performers, which we have exposure to in portfolios (2) (3)
Dividend payers performed very well AND paid their dividends (some at higher rates being interest rates are up)
Fixed income performance is positive across the board which is great to see (4)
Income here is very strong for the interest rate environment we are in
Since the Federal Reserve decreased rates throughout the year of 2025, fixed income also saw a boost in value as there is an inverse relationship between rates and fixed income values
We are very happy with how portfolios performed this year
Common Themes Of 2025
There was a big disconnect between consumer sentiment and how the market performed
Consumer sentiment was quite low relative to historical levels and the market still performed exceptionally well
The market powered through even with elevated valuations in certain areas
Most areas were largely fairly valued and benefited from company earnings increasing
The growth/tech/AI area is where valuations were most elevated but continued to power through due to optimism of companies rapidly expanding their capital investments into these spaces
The Federal Reserve had more of a dovish approach even with slightly high inflation
Many feel the US is going through an “affordability crisis” and even with this in mind the Fed chose to reduce the Fed Funds rate (pretty much sets short term interest rates) from 4.5% to start the year down to 3.75% to end the year (5)
Lowering interest rate tends to increase demand which could drive up prices
We’ll have more info on our outlook here later in the letter
Higher interest rates pay off for fixed income investors
Fixed income has looked very attractive the past 2 or 3 years given higher interest rates
Investors are being compensated very well and taking on less risk
Market Outlook
Where Are We and Where Do We See Things Going In 2026?
Equity Market
Earnings/Valuation
The S&P 500 is currently trading around 6,900 (WSJ) and the estimated earnings are around $305/share for 2026(Goldman Sachs). If we use $305/share and divide that by 6,900 price we come to about a 4.42% earnings yield on the S&P 500. This is fairly valued to a little elevated to us considering the 10 year treasury is currently sitting around 4.16% (Bloomberg). This means that you are not being compensated a ton for taking on extra risk of owning equities over fixed income. It doesn’t mean a correction is imminent but caps upside on equities valuation wise UNLESS earnings really jump above analyst expectations.
How Do We Position Ourselves With This Information?
We are cautiously optimistic
In many portfolios we have exposure to these three common themes in different proportions depending on the clients goals/tolerance
Dividend Paying Equities
These are pretty fairly valued but earnings keep growing and they continue to pay their dividends, many at higher levels
Growth/Non-Dividend Paying Equities
These are most susceptible to a market correction BUT is the area that’s been growing the most when the market is up
We own this area to keep returns higher than inflation over the long-term
This area ALSO becomes the most attractive to buy in market corrections, which is why we welcome them as an opportunity
Fixed Income
Everyone hates fixed income in an up market because it doesn’t perform as well BUT this is what holds it’s value most in market corrections, which is what you sell to buy areas that have gotten beaten up and look cheap
We just described the simple beauty of asset allocation and periodic rebalancing
What we’ve done over the past few years is take gains on growth equities, put them into fixed income or dividend payers to lower risk while keeping accounts “in balance”
Right now we are not looking to make major moves but plan to if we see a major market correction
What Areas Do We Like?
Dividend Payers
Dividend rates are attractive and valuations are fair, not necessarily low
You’d have to see dramatic changes in expected earnings to see this area hit hard
You’re collecting a dividend while rooting for the stock to go up over time
Mid and Small Caps
This is an area that has lower valuations and hasn’t performed as well as other areas but we see opportunity
We have some exposure here but aren’t super overweight
Historically small cap stocks outperform large over the long-term but are a little more of a rocky road to get there
What Do We Ignore
We largely ignore analyst expectations of stock market performance because they are wildly inconsistent and usually wrong
In the beginning of every year analysts come on TV and say they expect somewhere from 6% to 8% growth in the market and it just about never happens. Here are the growth rates by year for the past 10 Years (Macrotrends)
2025 – 16.39%
2024 – 23.31%
2023 – 24.23%
2022 – (19.44%)
2021 – 26.89%
2020 – 16.26%
2019 – 28.88%
2018 – (6.24%)
2017 – 19.42%
2016 – 9.54%
The point here is it just about NEVER HAPPENS
The average over that time period was about 14%, but it’ s a pretty wild and inconsistent ride over that time frame
This is what unseasoned equity investors need time adjusting to
We can’t control what the market does, but we can control how we position ourselves AND how we behave during different periods
Fixed Income
Where Are We Now?
The Fed Funds rate (short term rate) sits around 3.75%, down from 4.5% a year earlier (Bloomberg)
The 10 Year Treasury sits around 4.12%, down from about 4.5%a year ago (Bloomberg)
The 30 Year Treasury sits around 4.85%, which is just about the same from a year ago (Bloomberg)
The yield curve is not “inverted” anymore
There was fear over the past few years about an inverted yield curve causing a recession/market collapse and that has not happened
It also compensates longer-term investors better than short term ones
What Areas Do We Like?
We like mid to longer term area now because investors could lock in longer rates for longer
Interest rates increases look unlikely given where inflation is and the current administration’s push to appoint a more dovish Fed Chair to replace Powell
We’ll send out more info here in another update
Economy
Growth
In our view, a big thing that can’t be confused is economic growth and market growth
Economic growth figures usually come in much later than market data
GDP growth in Q3 2025 was over 4% (WSJ) and the market had a great year
This has not been the norm for years
Unemployment
The unemployment rate has crept up to about 4.6% as of November 2025 (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Unemployment was below 4% in recent years
It’s not at an alarmingly high rate in our view but something we are definitely following
Cause for major concern would be over 6% and we aren’t close to that
Historically this is actually a very low level of unemployment
Politics/Geopolitics
The market shrugged off many world events of 2025
There are too many to name
But the point is the market has a mind of it’s own
The Fed and Interest Rates
As stated before, the Fed reduced the Fed Funds Rate a little this year
We don’t see significant rate decreases being warranted given elevated inflation and not much data supporting the decision, which the Fed is heavily data dependent
We’ll send a separate update here with a more in-depth analysis
Wealth Management Issues
Here’s a few areas clients should be focusing on. Please contact our office if you would like to schedule an in-person or virtual review meeting.
Pre-Retiree Clients
Financial Independence Goal
It’s imperative you know what number you are working towards retirement savings wise
Cash Flow Planning
Coming up with a plan on what you are going to save to hit your goal
Investment Planning
Making sure your investments in line with what you are trying to target/accomplish
Tax Planning
Working with our tax team to make sure you are taking advantage of what opportunities you have and withholding what you need to
Estate Planning
Making sure you have estate planning documents in place AND have a plan setup for what you want out of your financial life
If YOU DO NOT, we have a complimentary service with a company we have partnered with to help you get these in place
Feel free to reach out to our office if you are interested
Retiree Clients
Cash Flow / Income / Spending
Know what is coming in and what you can comfortably spend
If you are feeling uneasy about cash flow it’s a good time to setup a meeting
Tax Planning
Our tax team can work with you this tax season to see if you have to make any adjustments withholding wise with new changes in tax laws for 2026
Estate Planning
Making sure you have estate planning documents in place AND that we have them on file
Team Update
A few updates here on our company structure. There are many new faces and they are all part of the team to provide you with a wonderful overall experience. We are dedicated to growing to provide you with the best experience we can.
Wealth Advisors - We currently have three advisors who see their separate clients. They are below:
Jason Gordon, CPA/PFS, CFP®, MS (Taxation)
Anthony Sandomierski, CPA/PFS, CFP®, MS (Taxation)
Mike Rytelewski, CPA/PFS, CFP®
Wealth Management Team – This team is here to help our advisors and ultimately you with various wealth management areas. They are below:
Alli Panagos, CFP® *
Ray Gardner, CPA, MBA *
Murat Sensoy, CFA
* Registered Administrative Assistant of Cetera Wealth Services, LLC, member FINRA/SIPC.
Tax Team – This team is dedicated to making sure you are overserved on the tax side of our business and works closely with our wealth management team/wealth advisors.
Marianne Brown, CPA
Dan Koppell, CPA
Lidia Quintano Ponce
Client Services Team – This team is dedicated to your every service need.
Amanda O’Reilly
Casey Cavasin
Paola DiGeso
Liz Lutes
Rosemary Humphrey – After over 20 years of dedicated service on our tax team, Rosemary will be retiring. We thank her for her many years of service, thoughtfulness, dedication, and humor. I know many of you will miss working with Rosemary. We will surely miss working with her and wish her the absolute best in her well-earned retirement!!
We’re incredibly proud of our team and their continued dedication to you.
Thank you!!!!
As always, it’s an honor to serve you. We thoroughly appreciate feedback and if there are areas we can help with, we’d love to know.
We are taking on new wealth management clients. We do not take on tax only clients. Passing our information onto a friend, relative, acquaintance, etc. goes a very long way for us. It’s how we’ve built our entire firm.
Feel free to share this with someone you know we can help!
Also, feel free to leave us a review on Google or Social Media. This goes a long way for us as well!
We wish you a very positive 2026!!!
Sincerely,
Oujo Wealth Strategies
1540 Highway 138, Suite 106, Wall, NJ 07719
Main | 732-556-4200
Fax | 732-681-4479
OujoWealthStrategies.com
All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. There is no assurance that any investment strategy will be successful.
Past performance is not an indication or guarantee of future results.
Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic stability, and differences in accounting standards.
The return and principal value of bonds fluctuate with changes in market conditions. If bonds are not held to maturity, they may be worth more or less than their original value.
The return and principal value of stocks fluctuate with changes in market conditions. Shares when sold may be worth more or less than their original cost.
The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of Cetera Wealth Services, LLC and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
S&P 500 – A capitalization -weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
- https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/investing/article/stock-market-outlook-183956475.html
- https://www.investing.com/analysis/did-growth-beat-value-in-2025-200672731
- https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/04/investing/global-stock-market-year-international
- https://www.morningstar.com/bonds/bond-market-wraps-up-2025-with-broad-gains
- https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/fedexplained/accessible-version.htm
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