Q3 2025 Client News Letter
Q3 2025 Client Letter – October 8, 2025
Enclosed are your reports and spreadsheets (Clients with assets over $1,000,000 in assets under management) for the period ending September 30, 2025. Also included in this mailing are educational materials, relevant updates, and our outlook on the market.
Market Recap
Overall Performance
It’s been a pretty wonderful year performance wise so far
Just about all asset classes are positive for the year
This is largely what we see:
Conservative accounts are up around mid-single digits
Moderate accounts are up close to the double-digit level
More aggressive accounts are up into double digits
US Stock Indexes are all positive, with large cap outperforming mid and small caps
Large Cap Growth and International positions have been the highest performers
Dividend payers have performed well AND paid their dividends which is great to see and what we root for
Fixed income performance is positive across the board which is great to see
Income here is very strong for the interest rate environment we’re in
Common Themes So Far
The market was spooked to start the year on tariff/policy change concerns but that has largely subsided
Tariff policy changes have been quite difficult to track BUT the market has largely shrugged this off
The equity market has whipsawed from lows to record highs so far
The S&P 500 started the year at about 5,800, hit the 5,000 mark a few months later, and has now hit almost 6,700 as of this letter.
The lesson to learn here is to have a long-term outlook when you own equities, not try and time the market, and stay disciplined
The Federal Reserve has been under scrutiny from the Trump administration to lower rates significantly, but has only made one minor cut so far this year
We’ll discuss this more in our outlook
Inflation is still a little stubbornly high
The Fed wants to see this closer to 2% to justify decreasing rates more significantly
Market Outlook
Equity Market
Earnings/Valuation
The S&P 500 is currently trading around 6,700 (WSJ) and the estimated earnings are around $300/share for 2026(Goldman Sachs). If we use $300/share and divide that by 6,700 price we come to about a 4.47% earnings yield on the S&P 500. This is kind of fair considering the 10-year treasury is currently sitting around 4.12% (Bloomberg). What this means is you’re getting paid a very slight premium to own equities over something safer. This has been the norm for quite some time now.
How Do We Position Ourselves With This Information?
As the equity market has climbed, we have made slight moves into fixed income over time
The reason is you’re being compensated well to own fixed income
We are cautiously optimistic as lower rates can boost equity valuations and projected earnings are strong and keep climbing
We think if the S&P 500 gets close to 7,000 in the near term it’s not warranted to too expensive but if it falls to 6,300 it looks quite cheap
We are ALWAYS looking for opportunities here
What Areas Do We Like?
Dividend Payers
This space has become attractive because yields are nice, and valuations are fair
We own plenty of this for our retiree clients who need income to live off
Mid and Small Caps
We have exposure here as they could benefit in a lower rate environment since they have been hit for a few years with higher borrowing costs
Fixed Income
Where Are We Now?
The Fed Funds rate (short term rate) sits around 4.25% (Bloomberg)
The 10 Year Treasury sits around 4.12% (Bloomberg)
The 30 Year Treasury sits around 4.75% (Bloomberg)
The yield curve is largely not “inverted” anymore
There was fear over the past few years about an inverted yield curve causing a recession/market collapse and that has not happened
It also compensates longer-term investors better than short term ones
What Areas Do We Like?
Short term investors will likely get hit the hardest if rates continue to decline
Mid to longer term investors benefit pretty well from this because values tend to go up if rates come down
Mid to longer term fixed income is really paying relatively attractive rates and we like this area
Economy
Growth
There has been a disconnect for years between US economic growth and US equity market growth
This has just become a new norm
We focus more on companies continuing to grow their earnings and stock market valuation relative to that
Unemployment
There’s been signs of weakness in the employment markets, but we are not even over 5% unemployment at this point
But trends towards more unemployment warrant interest rate cuts
It’s this balancing act where unemployment increases and hurts the equity market, but then the Fed reduces rates and that helps
It’s very hard to predict market reactions to this news given the environment we are in
Politics/Geopolitics
There’s a lot going on in the world as usual, but the market continues to shrug this off as earnings continue to grow and people continue to spend and live their lives
We will keep you posted on anything of significance here as it impacts financial markets
The Fed and Interest Rates
We’re going to go back a little here
Short term rates (which the Fed largely controls) were incredibly low (virtually 0%) from 2008-2015 (1)
The 2018 China trade war saw a rise in these rates to a little over 2% (2)
These came right back down to about 0% during COVID in 2020 (3)
They then shoot up gradually from 2022-2024 to a high of 5.25% (3)
It has come back down to about 4.5% up until this interest rate cut this past month (4)
We now sit at about 4.25% (4)
Why is this important to know?
The equity markets LOVES low rates because it increases valuations
Businesses love low rates because they can borrow cheaper to fund projects/initiatives
Short term/bank product investors hate low rates because they aren’t compensated well
Longer term fixed investors are happy to lock in higher rates for longer when they can
We’re not speculating on future rate cuts, but the yield curve shows that the market expects more rate cuts to come and the equity and fixed income markets largely price these into prices IN ADVANCE
In our view, we need to see much more negative data coming out about employment data, consumer spending/sentiment, manufacturing levels, and steady/low inflation to have SIGNIFICANT decreases in interest rates
We’re just not seeing this yet
More to come here
Here’s a few areas clients should be focusing on. Please contact our office if you would like to schedule an in-person or virtual review meeting.
Pre-Retiree Clients
The biggest thing pre-retiree clients need to do is quantify how much they need in invested/retirement assets to be financially independent
It’s a big deal to quantify this and to have your overall plan updated if you haven’t been in in a while or have had a major life event/change
Retiree Clients
A big focus of ours here is making sure your overall distribution rate from accounts is ok and that you are generating the income you need to live off
Next is making sure your estate plan is in order and that we have those documents on file
If you haven’t had a call or meeting in a while, please reach out to the office to set one up
A few updates here.
Jason & Anthony – Jason and Anthony have availability for client reviews. If you are due for one, please contact our office to set one up. We encourage having annual reviews.
Mike Rytelewski CPA, CFP – We are happy to announce that Mike has completed all four parts of the CPA exam and now officially has his CPA license!!! We’re thrilled to have him on our team.
Ray Gardner, CPA – We are happy to announce that Ray has passed the Series 7 exam!!! Ray has been a great addition to the team.
Tax Team – If any client would like a tax projection done before year end please contact our tax team members. Either Marianne Brown, CPA at marianne@oujowealth.com or Dan Koppell, CPA at dan@oujowealth.com.
Client Services Team – We want to recognize our dedicated Client Services team and all of their efforts serving you. They come in each and every day giving it their all.
Amanda O’Reilly
Casey Cavasin
Paola DiGeso
Liz Lutes
We’re very proud of our team and their continued dedication to you.
As always, it’s an honor to serve you. We thoroughly appreciate feedback and if there are areas we can help with, we’d love to know.
We can’t thank you enough for your business and we hope you have a very nice fall!
Sincerely,
Oujo Wealth Strategies
1540 Highway 138, Suite 106, Wall, NJ 07719
Main | 732-556-4200
Fax | 732-681-4479
OujoWealthStrategies.com
All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. There is no assurance that any investment strategy will be successful.
Past performance is not an indication or guarantee of future results.
Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic stability, and differences in accounting standards.
The return and principal value of bonds fluctuate with changes in market conditions. If bonds are not held to maturity, they may be worth more or less than their original value.
The return and principal value of stocks fluctuate with changes in market conditions. Shares when sold may be worth more or less than their original cost.
S&P 500 – A capitalization -weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of Cetera Wealth Services, LLC and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The Federal Reserve 2018 Annual Report
https://www.sofi.com/learn/content/history-of-fed-funds-rate/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
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